Handicapping analysis of Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic (Race 10) [Breeders’ Cup]

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The Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic is a 1 1/8 mile race for fillies and mares ages three and up, over the dirt. The purse is $2,000,000. This is race 10 on the program for Friday’s Card. Post time is 7:30 p.m.

This race will likely come down to the three-year-old fillies: It’s Tricky, Plum Pretty, and Royal Delta.

Plum Pretty, Bob Baffert’s Kentucky Oak’s winner, has run in seven Grade 1 or Grade 2 races this year and has never fared worse than fourth. She has three wins this year.

It’s Tricky has four wins in seven starts this year, five of those starts in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races. She has never fared worse than fourth in her lifetime.

Plum Pretty and It’s Tricky meeting today may be the closest we’ll see this weekend to a rivalry similar to Havre de Grace and Blind Luck. This will be the fourth consecutive meeting for It’s Tricky and Plum Pretty. It’s Tricky currently holds the lead in these meetings, faring better than Plum Pretty in two starts, although Plum Pretty beat It’s Tricky by 7 ½ lengths in their last meeting, the 1 1/16 mile Cotillion. In their last race at the Classic distance of 1 1/8 mile, the Coaching Club American Oaks, It’s Tricky took Plum Pretty by ¾ lengths.

Royal Delta beat both Plum Pretty and It’s Tricky in the Grade 1 Alabama in August. If she runs back to that form, she could beat them again.

My longshot selection for this race is 10-1 Miss Match. She faced the boys in her last two starts, the Grade 1 Goodwood and the Hollywood Gold Cup. She was fourth and seventh in those races, but earned Brisnet speed figures of over 100. Throw in her bullet work and the fact she finished third to Blind Luck by only ¾ of a length at this distance, makes this Neil Drysdale runner very dangerous.

Photo: Courtesy Breeders’ Cup